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willay Says, in 7-24-2010 at 18:02:32 from 72.12.188.99    

big country baby!!! Gonna bring home that belt eventually!!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

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Ray_Pist Says, in 7-24-2010 at 18:18:30 from 71.17.20.112    

I keep saying it but the odds makers have this fight way wrong. I’m not saying that I think Roy is going to steam roll Junior, but the odds makers have it as Junior is going to steam roll Roy…I just don’t see that happening. I got my latest bet on Roy at +285 … do you really think that this fight is that one sided in Junior’s favor?

The Raymond Q Pist breakdown.

Stand up

JUNIOR DOS SANTOS (JDS) – Junior has very good boxing stand up. He has knockout power, and is above average as shown by his dominant performances over Gilbert Yvel and Mirko “Cro Cop” Flipovik. This being said Mirko isn’t in the same form he once was, and Gilbert although above average isn’t a top tier fighter.

ROY NELSON – The standing aspect of MMA is by far Roy’s weakest point, he has had troubles against people who have a jaw, as Roy has shown he can take a few to land one, but if his one’s don’t KO his opponent he usually get’s out struck. His largest weakness against standup fighters has been against those with speed, as although Roy is extremely fast for his size he isn’t Arlovski fast. Roy has worked alot on his stand-up although Brendan Shaub and Steffan Struve aren’t exactly a giant test to see how far his stand-up has evolved in the last year. I do know that Monson was getting the better part of the stand-up which isn’t saying too much for Roy’s stand-up.

Wrestling

JDS – Junior’s offensive wrestling has yet to be seen, however we have seen a little bit of his defensive wrestling at work. In the Cro Cop fight we saw Mirko grab in a few times for a clinch and JDS had no part of that, and in the Gonzaga fight, although Gonzaga took JDS down, JDS showed he had some good hip movement to get back up right fast. This is both good and bad…good that he was able to get up, bad that someone with Gonzaga’s calliber of takedowns was able to get it to the ground, and although Gonzaga’s subs are great, he isn’t known for his ability to hold position like a wrestler such as Velasquez or Lesnar, or even Nelson for that matter do.

ROY – Roy isn’t a wrestler so much, but he is above average at getting the fight to the ground, and usually struggles against fighters with a similar build to him (Justin Wren, Pat “Buffalo Head” Curran). JDS doesn’t have the same build as him, and I believe if Gonzaga could get the takedown then Roy has a very good chance of getting the takedown. The difference is once the takedown occurs Roy is very good at keeping position and controlling on the ground. Jeff Monson was absolutely schooled by Roy on the ground and Monson is a very good grappler so that tells us how good Roy is on the ground.

SUBS

JDS – Can’t say much here, he is untested in the UFC, his only loss came via sub, I haven’t seen that fight, it happened along time ago, he trains with the brothers Nog, but all in all I can’t say for or against.

Roy – Phenominal….that’s really all that can be said….he schooled Mir on the ground in a jiu jitsu competition…need I say more, Mir, although in my mind not suited for MMA as he doesn’t like getting hit, is a very good submission artist and to get beat by Roy tells us all something about Roy, Even though JDS is untested I don’t see him having the advantage here, if anything he can hope to cancel out Roy’s jiu jitsu skills, but I find that possiblity unlikely.

So standing I give JDS a 10 – 5 advantage, it is a pretty big margin, as JDS has shown time and time again his boxing is phenominal, he hasn’t fought someone who uses kicks to keep the distance, and I don’t see Roy coming in leg kicking. Roy although 2-0 in the UFC and both wins by devestating KO just isn’t in JDS’ league when it comes to fisticuffs, that being said I do think Roy has the power to KO JDS if he did connect I just don’t see that happening.

Takedowns – I give Roy a 10 – 8 advantage as JDS has shown ability to avoid the TD, but has been taken down by worse TD artists than Roy. Roy has good takedowns but he isn’t top notch wrestler takedown artist. Slight advantage for Roy

Ground Control – 10 – 9 Roy. Roy has shown time in and time out that he has above average ground control…however explosive speed has shown us to be problematic as Shaub was able to get back to standing against Roy, and JDS has shown the ability to get back up against Gonzaga but again Gonzo isn’t a control type fighter…still give Roy a 1 point advantage as he has shown control on ground often.

Subs – 10 – ? Roy Nelson. This is the unknown…I think it should be known that Roy wins the category, but what’s unknown is by how much. JDS’ only loss is via Sub…but again long time ago, he trains with two great Sub fighters, it’s tough to say how far he has come along, we haven’t seen him on the ground too much.

Overall Scores

Standing 10-5 JDS
Wrestling 10-8 ROY
Control 10-9 ROY ~ possibly more
Subs 10-? ROY ~ I think at least 2 pt advantage Roy

ROY = 35 PTS
JDS = 35 PTS if you give Roy 2 Pt SUB Advantage

This fight is very close, Roy has the jaw to take a few punches, Cro Cop did, Roy’s jaw is better than the Mirko’s jaw is now. I just think the odds makers have this all wrong should be if anything +150 Roy but not +285

Bruno: That is why I put $500 on Roy when it was +350.

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jason Says, in 7-24-2010 at 19:06:07 from 96.10.14.131    

Lesnar talked s*** about Shane Carwin not being a true “athlete”. I’d love to hear the s*** he talks when he faces this chub-a-lub. We won’t have to hear it though… because Dos Santos is going to make Nelson’s brain jiggle like his belly.

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joker Says, in 7-24-2010 at 21:03:27 from 96.42.3.0    

sorry ray u just made the worst argument for your guy Nelson. Just becuz u never seen it doesnt mean it isnt there. By the way have u seen the clip on Mir vs Nelson grappleing match? Roy won but not really he didnt dominate or even attempted anything just out point him. Oh plus Mir had like zero cardio so that help. Anyway i take Roy by submission in the second. Cuz IM FAT IM FAT.

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axe murderer Says, in 7-24-2010 at 21:53:31 from 71.172.216.134    

I agree with Jason, JR is the real deal. Im predicting brutal KO in the 1st.

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john316 Says, in 7-24-2010 at 23:11:09 from 98.125.243.247    

This would be a huge win for Roy I just don’t see it going down that way

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spyder Says, in 7-24-2010 at 23:45:43 from 76.109.91.249    

Roy has changed me from a hater to a lover. His attitude and ability is clear for everyone to see. He’s a gamer. Anyone who fights him will be hurt very badly. I love it. MORE FAT BOY!

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vintage1chi Says, in 7-25-2010 at 03:57:56 from 67.186.72.114    

if roy nelson were a cardio rat he’d be unstoppable

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moodman Says, in 7-25-2010 at 08:46:06 from 144.160.5.25    

jiggle. lol

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had_to_say_it Says, in 7-25-2010 at 15:43:23 from 24.238.154.200    

I think Roy Nelson actually isn’t fat when the camera is not on him. He probably takes off his belly, where underneath lies a glistening 6 pack.

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mars_megadeth Says, in 7-25-2010 at 18:08:02 from 156.34.36.56    

nelson almost looks like ron jeremy lol

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Pope Says, in 7-25-2010 at 19:51:29 from 68.80.121.211    

Roy has nice flow

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viking Says, in 7-25-2010 at 22:56:52 from 98.182.16.166    

Roy via knee bar. Heard it here.

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chiroguy Says, in 7-28-2010 at 19:16:41 from 24.46.40.127    

People…Junior Dos Santos is the real deal…brutal knockout in either the 1st or the 2nd…I cannot believe any of you actually believe that Roy can win this fight…Please pass whatever uncontrolled substance you people are smokin!!!

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Swordsmansmith Says, in 7-30-2010 at 15:57:26 from 151.213.102.69    

I can’t believe anyone thinks Dos Santos can actually beat Brock. Win or lose neither one’s takin the title from Brock. Cain’s a done deal, the only thing he’s better at than Brock is eatin Hot Chiles.

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