Cesar Gracie Breaks Down BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz

I got $100 on BJ this week-end!! Gonna be great.

As much as I like Penn, I think Diaz is going to take over the fight with his reach.

@ marvelous mad madam mim

Daley over Penn?… How can you say that, Daley has no ground game.

@Marvelous Mad Madam mim

You’re completely wrong. I’m a Diaz fan, but Matt Hughes would beat Diaz with wrestling alone. My point is that Diaz has been knocked down, and almost put away with punches, (I.E vs Daley, Vs. Gomi and a few others.) BJ’s can take hits and has never been knocked down. My prediction is that BJ will knock Diaz down and submit him in the 1st.

“Fact” Bas Rutten would eat Bj, Nick and Cesar for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

@marvelous mad madam mim….Bro BJ Penn would destroy Paul Daley,…what are your fricken high? Nick Diaz must have passed the doobie your way. Paul Daley is probably ranked somwhere around the 30th best 170 lb fighter in the would, Penn is top 5.

Both guys have awsome BJJ and great stand up…should be a good fight. I have to give the edge to Penn. Penn has fought the best MMA fighters in the world, Diaz has been been beating up on B league opponants like KJ Noons and Cyborg…sorry but they arent in the same catagory as Hughes, GSP, Edgar, Fitch, Florian, Stevenson, ..etc. BJ Penn level of competition he has faced is on a completely different level. Penn wouldve destroyed the compeition in strikeforce. Diaz barely got through some of those fighters and won some close decisions.

This is going to be a GREAT fight. Both guys WANT to fight which is key, but there are basically 3 points that I see. What shape Penn comes in at, id Diaz wants to bang EARLY, and if Penn stays too passive and lets Diaz buil up the volume punching.

Bottom line, BJ is a better fighter in pretty much all fight phases, but his conditioning is CLEARLY worse.

If this was 5 rounds and Diaz has half a brain and paces himself a bit, I would take him to wear BJ down, but if BJ comes in in decent to great shape and this goes 3 hard rounds, 9/10 times BJ will own him. There’s a VERY good reason why Nick’s coach begged on multiple avenue’s for 5 rounds. He’s got the triathalete with the good chin.

Punishment, BJ takes little to no head on punishment, and he’s got a great chin. Listen, Getting humped and then gassing while fighting a much bigger dude is completely different than getting dominated by striking or BJJ. Diaz on the other hand is a strong VOLUME puncher, but let’s face it, the Dude throws down and eats more than his fair share of shots. If Daley had any semblance of a ground game, he would have choked Diaz out when he stunned him a few times in their fight. If BJ gets that chance (which he probably will), he’s going to either KO diaz or finish him on the ground. Diaz will not recover no matter what his conditioning is if he CAN’T BREATH.

The only shot I see Diaz having, is if BJ gases or Diaz wears him down with Volume due to BJ complacency/friendship.

I love wathing Diaz fight, but getting crapped on by Daley and Cyborg for parts of both fights shouldn’t make anyone think that Diaz would do well back in the UFC. DO you really think that Fitch wouldn’t just hump Diaz into the ground for 3 rounds?